SPEAKER_1: Welcome to StarTalk, your place in the universe where science and pop culture collide.
SPEAKER_1: StarTalk begins right now.
SPEAKER_1: This is StarTalk.
SPEAKER_1: I'm your host, Neil deGrasse Tyson, your personal astrophysicist, and I have with me Chuck Nice.
SPEAKER_2: That's right.
SPEAKER_1: Hey, Chuck.
SPEAKER_2: Hey, Neil.
SPEAKER_1: Tweeting at Chuck Nice Comic.
SPEAKER_2: That is correct, sir.
SPEAKER_1: As always, good, good to have you on the show.
SPEAKER_2: Good to be here.
SPEAKER_1: Do you know what this topic is today?
SPEAKER_1: There's probably no more important topic we've ever addressed than this topic.
SPEAKER_1: Oh.
SPEAKER_1: The future of humanity.
SPEAKER_1: Oh, okay.
SPEAKER_1: That's what it is.
SPEAKER_2: The future of humanity.
SPEAKER_1: And we are featuring my interview with the one and the only Elon Musk.
SPEAKER_2: A man who is contributing to the future of humanity.
SPEAKER_1: He's not contributing to it, he is the future.
SPEAKER_1: It's not something that everybody else is doing and then they come in on it.
SPEAKER_1: No, no, he's making it, okay?
SPEAKER_2: Okay.
SPEAKER_1: And sometimes he's referred to as the real life Iron Man, Tony Stark.
SPEAKER_1: I have to agree with that actually.
SPEAKER_1: And he's the founder of PayPal.
SPEAKER_1: It's an internet company.
SPEAKER_1: He's the founder of SpaceX, a rocket company.
SPEAKER_1: He's founder of Tesla Motors, an electric car company.
SPEAKER_1: And he's chairman of Solar City, a solar energy company.
SPEAKER_2: He is the real Tony Stark.
SPEAKER_1: There you go.
SPEAKER_1: And I thought, I mean, I don't love you, but I thought I should bring in some help on this one.
SPEAKER_2: Another man who?
SPEAKER_1: Yeah, yeah, someone else in my life.
SPEAKER_2: Now that, now this is awkward.
SPEAKER_3: It's not that awkward.
SPEAKER_3: Over here biting my lip.
SPEAKER_3: Is Dr.
SPEAKER_3: Tyson gonna introduce me or what?
SPEAKER_3: Should I say anything?
SPEAKER_1: No, we'll just talk about you.
SPEAKER_3: We're talking about Elon Musk, who was a heck of a guy.
SPEAKER_1: Yeah, good to have you here, because you've got some serious engineering background.
SPEAKER_1: And so a lot of the show, we're gonna talk about engineering the future of our civilization.
SPEAKER_3: Yeah, civilization can dream.
SPEAKER_1: But I'd rather you say what real stuff.
SPEAKER_1: Plus you're writing a book on sustainability.
SPEAKER_3: Climate change and doing more with less.
SPEAKER_1: Do you know what it's gonna be called?
SPEAKER_3: Unbounded.
SPEAKER_2: Unbounded?
SPEAKER_1: Ooh.
SPEAKER_3: And I want to cultivate, go ahead.
SPEAKER_2: Subtitle, you're a fricking idiot if you don't believe in climate change.
SPEAKER_1: Is that what it is?
SPEAKER_3: Well, that might as well be.
SPEAKER_3: So it is an extraordinary time.
SPEAKER_3: I mean, we're talking about Elon Musk and his vision for the future of humanity.
SPEAKER_3: But it's an extraordinary time.
SPEAKER_3: As we record this, the state of Florida just forbade.
SPEAKER_1: Forbade?
SPEAKER_3: Would not allow state officials to use the phrase climate change.
SPEAKER_2: Yes.
SPEAKER_1: Really?
SPEAKER_3: Yeah.
SPEAKER_2: Or sea level rise.
SPEAKER_3: Or sea level.
SPEAKER_3: And they're gonna, so what's gonna happen?
SPEAKER_3: The states of Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama are gonna build fences like we have in Texas to keep the Floridians, both the Seminoles and the.
SPEAKER_2: No, Chuck, I think no disrespect to anybody who lives in Florida, Georgia, or Alabama, but I got a feeling it's gonna be a chain link fence too.
SPEAKER_2: Let's keep this water out.
SPEAKER_1: Let's find out.
SPEAKER_1: So let's get to the bottom of what created Elon Musk.
SPEAKER_1: I wanted to find out where did he come from?
SPEAKER_1: From where did he grow up?
SPEAKER_1: I didn't know anything about the man.
SPEAKER_1: Let's find out.
SPEAKER_1: Elon, what egg hatched you into this world?
SPEAKER_1: Where were you before you?
SPEAKER_4: Well, I was born in South Africa.
SPEAKER_1: Born in South Africa, and you come to America and make a billion dollars?
SPEAKER_4: Yeah, I mean, I didn't expect to make a billion dollars, I suppose.
SPEAKER_4: I mean, I grew up in South Africa, honestly seeing a lot of the same TV and movies and reading comic books, and it really didn't feel all that different from say Southern California, honestly.
SPEAKER_1: So you had a kind of baptism into American pop culture at the time?
SPEAKER_4: Yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_4: I mean, I ate a lot of hamburgers and went to steak houses and read like every comic book.
SPEAKER_4: So my father brought me on a trip to the United States when I think I was about 10.
SPEAKER_4: I remember it was a really awesome experience because the hotels all had arcades.
SPEAKER_4: So my number one thing was when we went to a new hotel, a motel or whatever it is, go to the arcades and so the...
SPEAKER_1: Forget any other services, forget whether they had bedbugs.
SPEAKER_1: You were looking for arcade games.
SPEAKER_4: Yeah.
SPEAKER_1: What did video games do for you?
SPEAKER_4: They're incredibly engaging and they made me want to learn how to program computers because then I thought, well, I could make my own games and then I could also...
SPEAKER_4: I wanted to see how the games work.
SPEAKER_4: Like how did you create a video game?
SPEAKER_4: That's what led me to learn how to program computers.
SPEAKER_1: So you became a programmer.
SPEAKER_4: Yeah, so I had one of the first video game consoles.
SPEAKER_4: Didn't even have cartridges.
SPEAKER_4: You had like four games that you could play and you could like pick one of the four games you could play.
SPEAKER_4: That was it.
SPEAKER_4: And then it went from there to the original Atari and then the Intellivision.
SPEAKER_4: And then I was in a store and saw it, the Commodore VIC-20.
SPEAKER_4: And I was like, holy crow, you can actually have a computer and make your own games.
SPEAKER_4: I thought this was just one of the most incredible things possible.
SPEAKER_4: Took all of my saved allowance and then hounded my father until we got the Commodore VIC-20.
SPEAKER_4: And then I came with this manual on how to program in BASIC, which I sort of spent all night, several days in a row, just observing that and-
SPEAKER_1: On your own?
SPEAKER_1: No one forced you?
SPEAKER_4: No, I would never be forced.
SPEAKER_1: This is self-motivated, I gotta know this.
SPEAKER_1: This is good for me.
SPEAKER_4: I've spent like nine, nine or ten or something.
SPEAKER_1: So you're fluent in BASIC at age nine or ten?
SPEAKER_4: Yeah.
SPEAKER_4: I kind of went, got OCD on the thing.
SPEAKER_4: Maybe it's not technically OCD, but I suddenly got obsessive.
SPEAKER_4: Let me put that, at least the O part.
SPEAKER_1: So programming has power.
SPEAKER_1: You get to control something.
SPEAKER_4: Yeah, you can construct a little universe.
SPEAKER_4: And when you first do it, you're like, wow, this is incredible.
SPEAKER_4: You can actually make things happen.
SPEAKER_4: Like you type these commands and then something happens on the screen.
SPEAKER_4: That's pretty amazing.
SPEAKER_1: So there is hope for all the parents who have middle school children who are lost in their video game.
SPEAKER_2: Absolutely.
SPEAKER_1: They too can be a billionaire.
SPEAKER_3: I'm sorry what I was just playing.
SPEAKER_1: Bill, we're over here.
SPEAKER_1: Put the video game down.
SPEAKER_2: Put your PS Vita down.
SPEAKER_2: Yeah, you know, actually, that's my son is a video game craze ball.
SPEAKER_1: How old is he?
SPEAKER_2: He's nine.
SPEAKER_1: He's nine.
SPEAKER_1: Yeah, it doesn't get better.
SPEAKER_2: Doesn't get better.
SPEAKER_2: But his favorite game is something called Minecraft.
SPEAKER_1: Yeah.
SPEAKER_2: I know nothing about it.
SPEAKER_2: However, I started watching him play this and I went, you know what, this isn't bad.
SPEAKER_2: This guy's learning how to create his own universe.
SPEAKER_2: It's very imagination driven.
SPEAKER_2: And now he wants to learn how to code.
SPEAKER_3: We love the guy.
SPEAKER_1: It could go diabolical if he wants to create his own universe.
SPEAKER_3: It's not as easy as it sounds.
SPEAKER_3: On the radio, create your own universe.
SPEAKER_1: So just a quick resume of Elon Musk.
SPEAKER_1: So in 1999, he founded the company that would become PayPal and then sold it to eBay.
SPEAKER_1: And he ran off with $180 million and he was 32 years old.
SPEAKER_3: How did he make a living between university and 32?
SPEAKER_1: Well, there's more of this interview that we will find out.
SPEAKER_1: But I don't know, he was making companies and selling them and then moving on.
SPEAKER_3: The way you do.
SPEAKER_1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, of course, that's how you do it.
SPEAKER_1: Let's find out.
SPEAKER_3: That's hard.
SPEAKER_1: So what I wanted to know was while he was in college, what was he thinking about?
SPEAKER_1: Most of us in college, you want to major, get a job when you come out.
SPEAKER_1: Let's find out what he was thinking about.
SPEAKER_4: When I was in college, I sort of thought, well, what are the things that are most gonna affect the future of humanity in electric cars, solar power, essentially sustainable consumption?
SPEAKER_1: Most people are thinking, I just want a job when I get out.
SPEAKER_1: And you're trying to reshape humanity as an undergraduate.
SPEAKER_4: I mean, in America, it's pretty easy to keep yourself alive.
SPEAKER_4: So my threshold for existing is pretty low.
SPEAKER_4: I mean, I figured I could be in some dainty apartment with my computer and be okay and not starve.
SPEAKER_4: In fact, when I first came to North America, I was in Canada when I was 17.
SPEAKER_4: And just to sort of see what it takes to live I'd try to live on $1 a day, which I was able to do.
SPEAKER_4: You sort of just buy food in bulk at the supermarket.
SPEAKER_1: Yeah, yeah, rice and beans and then...
SPEAKER_4: Yeah, I went more for the hot dogs.
SPEAKER_4: Hot dogs, okay.
SPEAKER_4: Hot dogs and oranges.
SPEAKER_4: But you do get really tired of hot dogs and oranges after a while.
SPEAKER_4: And you can also like, you know, pasta and green pepper and a big thing of sauce and that can go pretty far too.
SPEAKER_4: So I was like, oh, okay, you know, if I can live for a dollar a day, then at least from a food cost standpoint, well, it's pretty easy to earn like $30 in a month, you know?
SPEAKER_1: Okay, so that allowed you to not have to worry about money because you did the experiment.
SPEAKER_4: Yeah, I did the experiment, exactly.
SPEAKER_1: So this was an important psychological, philosophical anchor for you.
SPEAKER_1: Not to put words in your mouth, but that's a starting point to launch anywhere you want to go.
SPEAKER_4: Yeah, absolutely.
SPEAKER_1: And so now you've got a baseline, a life baseline from which to go new places, intellectually, intellectually, psychologically, financially.
SPEAKER_1: So what came first?
SPEAKER_1: Thoughts of an electric car or thoughts of space?
SPEAKER_4: You know, when you're starting out in college, like in your freshman, sophomore year, like you have these sort of sophomoric philosophical wanderings.
SPEAKER_4: And I try to think of, okay, what are the things that will seem to me would most affect the future of humanity?
SPEAKER_4: There were really five things, three of which I thought would be interesting to be involved in.
SPEAKER_4: The three that I thought were definitely positive would be the internet, sustainable energy, both production and consumption, and space exploration, more specifically, the extension of life beyond Earth on a permanent basis.
SPEAKER_4: And then, although I never thought I would actually be involved in that, that was really something I thought that was important in the abstract, but not something I thought I would ever have an opportunity to be involved in.
SPEAKER_4: And then the fourth one was artificial intelligence, and the fifth one was rewriting human genetics.
SPEAKER_4: These were just the five things that I thought would most affect the future of humanity.
SPEAKER_1: So Chuck, did you wanna change humanity when you went to college?
SPEAKER_2: I didn't even wanna change my underwear when I was in college, are you kidding me?
SPEAKER_1: Bill, you're an engineer man, do you agree with this list?
SPEAKER_3: Yeah, it's a pretty cool list.
SPEAKER_1: It's a cool list.
SPEAKER_3: I would have included educating women and girls, raising the standard of living of women and girls so that the human population of the world will slowly become more manageable.
SPEAKER_1: A greater tapping the lost intellectual capital.
SPEAKER_3: That's right.
SPEAKER_1: Among those who have been disenfranchised from it.
SPEAKER_3: Or never franchised.
SPEAKER_2: Right, disenfranchised in the first place.
SPEAKER_3: Pre-franchised.
SPEAKER_2: Which is, I love when you say that because it's, basically, when women are educated, they don't have as many babies.
SPEAKER_3: That's it.
SPEAKER_2: That's all there is to it.
SPEAKER_3: The babies they have are more loved and better cared for.
SPEAKER_2: And so that's where the burgeoning of society happens with mom being a happier, healthier person, more educated, end up with better educated kids, end up with a better world.
SPEAKER_3: Just like that.
SPEAKER_2: Just like that.
SPEAKER_3: Furthermore, the woman has a higher quality of life.
SPEAKER_3: She has a better job.
SPEAKER_3: She's happier, which just makes everybody happy.
SPEAKER_1: So, Elon, after he sold PayPal, he had a bajillion, bazillion.
SPEAKER_2: See, now that's where I stop.
SPEAKER_1: Well, you'll be done.
SPEAKER_2: That's where I'm just done.
SPEAKER_1: You got a couple hundred million dollars.
SPEAKER_2: I got $180 million dollars.
SPEAKER_2: You're good, you're good.
SPEAKER_3: He's not that kind of guy though.
SPEAKER_3: Push, push, push, push, push.
SPEAKER_1: So what he wanted to do, he wanted to go into space.
SPEAKER_1: Let's find out how that got started.
SPEAKER_4: When I started out, my goal was to do a philanthropic mission with the intent of increasing NASA's budget.
SPEAKER_4: That was my goal.
SPEAKER_4: I was confused as to why we'd not yet sent a person to Mars.
SPEAKER_4: Seemed like this was obviously the goal after the moon and we'd not made progress on that.
SPEAKER_4: When it became clear that that paypal was going to get sold, a friend of mine asked me what I'm going to do next.
SPEAKER_4: I said, well, I don't know what I'm going to do next, but I'm always curious about what's going on with space and why have we made progress.
SPEAKER_4: I just wonder when we're going to send a person to Mars.
SPEAKER_4: So I went on the NASA website and I couldn't find a date.
SPEAKER_4: I was like, well, maybe it's here somewhere and I just can't find it.
SPEAKER_1: The date that NASA wants to land on Mars.
SPEAKER_4: Yeah, there's got to be some schedule or something.
SPEAKER_1: We're looking for that.
SPEAKER_4: Or a game plan or it's this date, even if it's far in the future.
SPEAKER_4: It was not to be found anywhere.
SPEAKER_4: And anyways, I started learning about that back history and I thought, well, okay, maybe there's something that I can do to send a small mission to the surface of Mars that would get the public excited.
SPEAKER_4: And as a result of that public excitement, NASA's budget will be increased and we could resume the process of sending people to Mars.
SPEAKER_4: Essentially.
SPEAKER_1: So you thought you can do that with your lousy billion dollars?
SPEAKER_4: No, I didn't have a billion dollars at that time.
SPEAKER_4: I had about, well, 180 million still a lot.
SPEAKER_4: And I figured, well, maybe I could spend half of that on a mission to Mars.
SPEAKER_4: So I spent a fair bit of time investigating the space industry and eventually decided on this idea of sending a small greenhouse to the surface of Mars and we called it the Mars Oasis Mission.
SPEAKER_4: And so you have seeds in dehydrated gel, it would land, you hydrate the gel upon landing and you'd have this great shot of green plants on a red background and the public responds to precedence and support it.
SPEAKER_4: So this would be the first life on another planet, the furthest that life's ever traveled, as far as we know.
SPEAKER_1: And that's how you get a headline.
SPEAKER_4: Yeah, exactly.
SPEAKER_4: So it's gotta be something new or something superlative.
SPEAKER_4: And I thought, well, okay, and that would maybe reinvigorate excitement and the result would be NASA's budget gets increased.
SPEAKER_4: So the whole goal in the beginning was just, how do we get more money for NASA?
SPEAKER_4: But after spending a bit of time on this, I came to the conclusion that I was actually incorrect.
SPEAKER_4: My initial assumption was wrong because I thought that where there's a will, there's a way and that we just sort of lost our will.
SPEAKER_4: That was, that's false.
SPEAKER_4: There's plenty of will.
SPEAKER_4: People needed to believe that there was a way and a way that would not bankrupt the country or mean that they would have to sacrifice something of critical importance like healthcare.
SPEAKER_4: So it became clear that the space transport problem had to be solved.
SPEAKER_4: Unless there was a dramatic improvement in the cost of space transport, then none of it would matter.
SPEAKER_1: So in your first successful launch, what was the cost per pound to orbit?
SPEAKER_4: About $6,000.
SPEAKER_1: 6,000.
SPEAKER_1: Okay, that's an improvement.
SPEAKER_4: Yeah, it's not bad.
SPEAKER_1: Not $100 a pound.
SPEAKER_4: No.
SPEAKER_4: To get to $100 a pound, you need a big rocket that's fully reusable.
SPEAKER_1: Are you there yet?
SPEAKER_4: No.
SPEAKER_4: We're making progress, though.
SPEAKER_4: It's been 12 years.
SPEAKER_4: So far, we've not recovered a stage, but I think we'll recover a stage within the next year and be able to reflight.
SPEAKER_1: Is there a date on your website where someone can say, oh, he's gonna land on Mars?
SPEAKER_4: Good point.
SPEAKER_1: That sounds like a no.
SPEAKER_4: Well, I mean, I've said it publicly many times, although maybe we should put something on the website, which is that I think we've got a decent shot of being able to send a person to Mars in about 11 or 12 years.
SPEAKER_1: So Bill, is he gonna do this?
SPEAKER_3: To reuse a stage?
SPEAKER_1: Yeah, yeah, and then get the cost down.
SPEAKER_3: Yeah, well, the cost down to a hundred.
SPEAKER_1: Wait, who's gonna get us to Mars, Elon Musk or NASA?
SPEAKER_3: So let us keep in mind.
SPEAKER_1: Please.
SPEAKER_3: That NASA pays SpaceX.
SPEAKER_3: About two billion bucks so far.
SPEAKER_1: Okay.
SPEAKER_3: So SpaceX is now a contractor for NASA.
SPEAKER_1: Okay, so our tax money is going to SpaceX.
SPEAKER_1: Okay, so what is this vehicle that's gonna get us to Mars?
SPEAKER_3: So there's a couple of innovations, just three innovations that I've seen with my own eyes, which must hide another hundred thousand innovations that are very much more subtle.
SPEAKER_3: First thing is all the same engines.
SPEAKER_3: First stage, second stage, how many stages?
SPEAKER_3: It's the same engine.
SPEAKER_3: So why didn't somebody else do that?
SPEAKER_3: That's a good question.
SPEAKER_1: Everything was a one-off in the past.
SPEAKER_3: Well, or a five-off, a Saturn five-off.
SPEAKER_3: And so then the other thing is, let's see if we can reuse a stage.
SPEAKER_3: And this is his thing.
SPEAKER_3: It almost worked the other day.
SPEAKER_3: He tried to, he, the company tried to land on a barge just east of Cape Canaveral.
SPEAKER_3: And it landed on the barge just a little faster than anybody would want because it ran out of fuel to slow itself down.
SPEAKER_1: If you want to get faster, and if you're going fast, you generally need fuel to slow down.
SPEAKER_1: Unless you're going to aerobrake or something.
SPEAKER_3: Yeah, well, we'd come to the atmosphere after lunch.
SPEAKER_3: It's, and the thing is not shaped for aerobraking, really, but it is shaped for retrorocketing, if I can coin the verb.
SPEAKER_3: But then the other, the fundamental thing, you guys, when you, just when NASA was created, I believe Dr.
SPEAKER_3: Tyson on the year of your birth, just within a week or so, yeah.
SPEAKER_1: Same week, same damn week.
SPEAKER_1: I come out of my mother, NASA comes out of Congress.
SPEAKER_3: Perhaps.
SPEAKER_3: Anyway, the idea was to keep the thing.
SPEAKER_1: I feel NASA's pain.
SPEAKER_3: Same age.
SPEAKER_3: They put NASA centers all over the US.
SPEAKER_3: So when they went to manufacture rockets, they put pieces of the rocket all over the US.
SPEAKER_3: Solid things are made over here, liquid things are made over here.
SPEAKER_3: They're tested over there.
SPEAKER_3: They get on train cars and go down there.
SPEAKER_3: Just the expression, Houston, we have a problem.
SPEAKER_3: Why isn't it Florida, we have a problem?
SPEAKER_3: Cape Canaveral, we have a problem.
SPEAKER_3: Orlando, we have a problem.
SPEAKER_1: The instant the spacecraft clears the gantry, in that instant, full control transfers to Houston.
SPEAKER_1: If there's a human being on board.
SPEAKER_3: That was a nautical miles away.
SPEAKER_1: Right, the whole countdown and everything, go to launch, go to, all of that is Cape Canaveral.
SPEAKER_3: But it's SpaceX.
SPEAKER_2: The moment it takes, the moment it passes the thing, then it's like, all right, guys, we'll take it from here.
SPEAKER_3: That's exactly what it is.
SPEAKER_2: Thanks a lot, guys, for your work.
SPEAKER_3: But anyway, it's SpaceX.
SPEAKER_3: It's just south of Los Angeles International Airport.
SPEAKER_3: Train car drives up full of stainless steel, full of titanium, full of let's make rocket anium parts.
SPEAKER_3: And it comes off the train car, and they shape it a bit and do their own thing.
SPEAKER_1: I want rocket anium, I want some of that.
SPEAKER_3: Well, you can get it.
SPEAKER_3: 6061 T6 aluminum, T7 sometimes, tempered 7 aluminum.
SPEAKER_3: So then it comes down, they make the tank, they attach the plumbing, it comes over here, there's a bunch of electronics, they attach that.
SPEAKER_3: They vacuum test it over here, blah, blah, blah.
SPEAKER_3: Then it goes back on the train car to either Cape Canaveral, close to the equator as the US can get, or up to Vandenberg Air Force Base, which is north of there.
SPEAKER_1: There's a continental US because Hawaii's closer.
SPEAKER_3: Yeah, Hawaii's closer, but that's not on a train car.
SPEAKER_1: Yeah, it's not on a train car.
SPEAKER_3: It's an extraordinary train car, man.
SPEAKER_3: And so-
SPEAKER_1: Hover train.
SPEAKER_3: The Aqua train.
SPEAKER_3: But the-
SPEAKER_1: Wait, wait, Bill, so I get that.
SPEAKER_3: Well, there's a fundamental lowering of cost.
SPEAKER_3: Huge reduction of cost.
SPEAKER_1: Is that low enough to go to Mars like everybody says?
SPEAKER_1: He wants to go to Mars.
SPEAKER_1: He still wants to go to Mars.
SPEAKER_3: Well, I would like to go to Mars, but I want to come back.
SPEAKER_3: And I don't want to go to Mars to live.
SPEAKER_3: I think that is not all the way thought through, in my opinion.
SPEAKER_2: We choose to go to Mars because it's not easy.
SPEAKER_3: Well, that's right.
SPEAKER_1: No, no, no.
SPEAKER_1: We choose to go to Mars because it will kill you.
SPEAKER_2: Right.
SPEAKER_1: It's so, yeah, I mean, it's really.
SPEAKER_3: Well, it's just really hostile.
SPEAKER_3: Also, for your consideration, I do love the Mars bar.
SPEAKER_3: For your consideration, we can talk about this after the break, but Elon Musk is a native of South Africa, South Africa colonized by Dutch people.
SPEAKER_3: I am a descendant from people from Northern and Central Europe.
SPEAKER_3: You guys are much more recently descended from Africa, but we have this human tradition of just spreading out.
SPEAKER_3: We don't like it here, we're gonna go over there.
SPEAKER_1: We'll just keep spreading.
SPEAKER_1: Which means, of course, you're a descendant of Africans as well.
SPEAKER_3: Oh yes, we're all descendants of Africans.
SPEAKER_1: You have arbitrarily selected.
SPEAKER_3: I say more recent descent.
SPEAKER_1: Let the record show that was a completely arbitrary line that you drew.
SPEAKER_3: Arbitrary, but historically, not insignificant.
SPEAKER_1: I'm just, I'm just.
SPEAKER_3: So anyway, humankind has spread into Mesopotamia.
SPEAKER_1: And you have numbers at this table.
SPEAKER_3: Across Eurasia, the Ice Age has the snow froze up.
SPEAKER_3: You just keep going in North America, spearing mammals, partying.
SPEAKER_1: It's what we do.
SPEAKER_3: And so it's not clear that you'll be able to leave the Earth and go live on Mars.
SPEAKER_1: So you are skeptical of this, but you would not interfere with the dream state.
SPEAKER_3: However, we do not wanna violate in Star Trekian terms.
SPEAKER_1: The prime directive?
SPEAKER_3: Just so, Doctor.
SPEAKER_1: Which is?
SPEAKER_3: We don't wanna mess up the ecosystem on Mars.
SPEAKER_3: If there is an ecosystem.
SPEAKER_1: We have no qualms messing up our own damn ecosystem.
SPEAKER_3: Well, that doesn't make it a good thing.
SPEAKER_1: I know, but why should Mars be the sacred place and not our own?
SPEAKER_3: There's a, it's a rule.
SPEAKER_1: We're pooping in our own backyard.
SPEAKER_3: It's an arbitrary, but it's not arbitrary.
SPEAKER_3: It's a reasonable rule.
SPEAKER_3: We can poop there after we determine whether or not there's something alive.
SPEAKER_2: Mars, it's nothing more than Earth's toilet.
SPEAKER_3: And with that, we'll be back after this.
SPEAKER_1: On that brilliant note from Chuck Nice, you're listening to StarTalk, the future of humanity edition.
SPEAKER_1: We'll be right back.
SPEAKER_1: We're back on StarTalk.
SPEAKER_1: I got Chuck Nice right across the table from me.
SPEAKER_2: Yes sir, yes sir.
SPEAKER_1: I got Bill Nye, the science guy.
SPEAKER_3: So good to be here.
SPEAKER_1: And since we're radio, I must alert people that even in studio, you are in bowtie, at the record show.
SPEAKER_3: Yeah, well, what you see is what you get.
SPEAKER_1: Maybe he's like the guy in Terminator 2, where the-
SPEAKER_3: Just a polymetal.
SPEAKER_1: Yeah, no, no, no, the polymetal, but no, but his police uniform-
SPEAKER_3: Yes, right.
SPEAKER_1: Was part of-
SPEAKER_3: Oh, it's polymetal.
SPEAKER_1: That is the metal, right?
SPEAKER_3: That's how I roll.
SPEAKER_1: So maybe Bill and the bowtie are polymetal.
SPEAKER_3: But watch out, I can turn my arm into a giant saber sword wacky thing of death thing, which is shiny.
SPEAKER_1: We're talking about the future of humanity.
SPEAKER_1: We're featuring my interview with Elon Musk.
SPEAKER_3: And that does not feature polymetal.
SPEAKER_1: No, it does not yet.
SPEAKER_1: Not yet.
SPEAKER_1: And I snared that interview when I visited him at SpaceX headquarters, which is, what's the name of that town that he's in?
SPEAKER_3: Crenshaw, Hawthorne.
SPEAKER_1: Hawthorne, California, near Los Angeles.
SPEAKER_3: Okay, New Yorker, where is it?
SPEAKER_3: Hawthorne.
SPEAKER_1: Hawthorne.
SPEAKER_3: Oh, by the stars.
SPEAKER_1: Fine, fine.
SPEAKER_1: So Bill, if we're gonna go to Mars, do you see engineering challenges to that?
SPEAKER_1: Or is it just, or is it only?
SPEAKER_1: No, no, wait, wait, wait.
SPEAKER_1: No, this is a very serious question.
SPEAKER_1: Engineers love a challenge.
SPEAKER_1: So don't tell me, don't play that with me.
SPEAKER_1: A, B.
SPEAKER_3: Oh, bring it on.
SPEAKER_3: Don't, don't bring it on.
SPEAKER_1: Don't even.
SPEAKER_1: So my question is, is it just a matter of money?
SPEAKER_1: Or even if I gave you as much money as you want, you might not be able to solve some of the engineering problems.
SPEAKER_3: Oh, we can solve the problems.
SPEAKER_1: Snap.
SPEAKER_3: No, we can solve.
SPEAKER_3: Yeah, because we land rover from a freaking rocket crane.
SPEAKER_1: Right.
SPEAKER_3: We can solve the problems.
SPEAKER_3: But as far as this colony idea, everybody.
SPEAKER_3: I mean, there's no liquid water as such.
SPEAKER_3: Oh, well Mars was once very wet, and we found evidence of ice.
SPEAKER_3: All good.
SPEAKER_3: But it's not like there's a river there.
SPEAKER_1: Right.
SPEAKER_3: Then-
SPEAKER_1: If there is, it's underground and no one has found it yet.
SPEAKER_3: And let me go on to say, it's on its summer day at the equator, it's 20 below.
SPEAKER_3: Yeah.
SPEAKER_3: You can get, what is it everybody wearing this year?
SPEAKER_3: Canada Arctic crew, that was a Goose Down, Canada Goose Down brand jacket.
SPEAKER_3: All very good.
SPEAKER_3: That's dead.
SPEAKER_3: That's when things are really good, that's all you got on.
SPEAKER_1: That's midsummer attire.
SPEAKER_3: But the main thing I think you would pick up on right away, there's no air.
SPEAKER_3: You would suffocate in a second.
SPEAKER_1: Well, there's air, but there's no oxygen in the air.
SPEAKER_2: Well, so you just have to make all that stuff once you get there.
SPEAKER_1: Thank you, Chuck.
SPEAKER_3: But Neil-
SPEAKER_1: At least somebody's thinking about the future here.
SPEAKER_3: We've got to stop you there.
SPEAKER_1: Bill, quiet for a minute.
SPEAKER_3: There is oxygen in the air, but it's carbon dioxide.
SPEAKER_3: You have to separate it from the carbon.
SPEAKER_1: Carbon dioxide, CO2, is one of the most tightly bound molecules ever made.
SPEAKER_3: I mean, you can do it, but you've got to put in the energy.
SPEAKER_1: You've got to put in the energy.
SPEAKER_3: And then you're going to be living, everybody, you're going to be living in a submarine.
SPEAKER_1: But just to be clear, so you have to get that energy from somewhere, right?
SPEAKER_1: So there's no such thing as a free lunch.
SPEAKER_3: And you're one and a half times the distance that we are from the sun.
SPEAKER_3: So your solar energy, if you just want to run, if you wanted to run solar panels, was 15 squared.
SPEAKER_3: So it's a one and a quarter.
SPEAKER_1: Two and a quarter times more.
SPEAKER_3: Less.
SPEAKER_3: Less sunlight.
SPEAKER_1: No, you need two and a quarter times more solar panels to equal that.
SPEAKER_2: In light of this conversation, why do we want to go there?
SPEAKER_3: Well, it is the next logical place to look for things.
SPEAKER_1: I like Chuck getting high pitch on us.
SPEAKER_3: Chuck, the reason you want to go there is because you're going to explore.
SPEAKER_3: And when you explore, two things happen.
SPEAKER_3: Those two things, Doc, Chuck, you will make discoveries.
SPEAKER_3: You will find something you never found before.
SPEAKER_3: But the other thing is you will have an adventure.
SPEAKER_3: You will have an adventure.
SPEAKER_3: It will engage you like nothing else, whether it's your backyard, the video game, or the surface of Mars.
SPEAKER_1: You might die, but it will be an adventure.
SPEAKER_3: What we want to do as an engineer, and this is what astronauts say, part of their pride as being astronauts is coming back.
SPEAKER_3: That's like landing the airplane is part of a pilot's pride.
SPEAKER_3: I mean, ejecting and letting the $350 million fighter plane explode is kind of cool on video, but it's not really your goal as a pilot or an astronaut.
SPEAKER_3: So if we were to go there with a human, we would be able to make discoveries at an extraordinary rate.
SPEAKER_3: It's estimated 10,000 times faster than our best robot spacecraft.
SPEAKER_1: Right now, but if the day comes when we have a 10,000 times better robot, you'd still probably want to explore.
SPEAKER_3: You still want to send a human there.
SPEAKER_3: So here's the thing.
SPEAKER_3: If we found evidence of life, fossilized bacterial mats or cooler yet, something still alive, some Mars probe, then the question would be, and I want to know, do those Mars probes have DNA like you and I do, or are they a whole other of anotherness?
SPEAKER_1: Mars probe?
SPEAKER_3: That's a Martian microbe.
SPEAKER_1: Mars probe.
SPEAKER_3: And then if they have DNA and they're so much like us, does that mean Mars was hit by an impactor, went off into space and you and I are descendant of Martians?
SPEAKER_1: We'd all be Martians.
SPEAKER_1: Okay, so you know, he's trying to change humanity, by reinventing space exploration.
SPEAKER_1: I get that, I get that, but he's also worried about problems on Earth.
SPEAKER_1: Okay, that's okay.
SPEAKER_3: So many of us are.
SPEAKER_1: Is he allowed?
SPEAKER_3: I say bring it on.
SPEAKER_1: Okay, so you know, he's co-founder of Tesla.
SPEAKER_3: Yeah.
SPEAKER_1: The electric car company.
SPEAKER_3: The car is just sex with wheels on it.
SPEAKER_1: Very cool, he's also sex with wheels on it.
SPEAKER_3: That's fantastic.
SPEAKER_1: He's also chairman of SolarCity.
SPEAKER_1: Let's hear how he just got into this.
SPEAKER_4: From a terrestrial standpoint, the biggest problem we need to solve on Earth this century is sustainable production and consumption of energy.
SPEAKER_4: This really is quite a serious problem.
SPEAKER_4: People really should take this quite seriously.
SPEAKER_4: Even if you put the environmental consequences of dramatically changing the chemical composition of the oceans and atmosphere aside, we will eventually run out of oil.
SPEAKER_1: Holding that aside.
SPEAKER_4: Well, if we don't find a solution to burning oil or transport and we then run out of oil, the economy will collapse and civilization will come to an end.
SPEAKER_4: Or as we know it.
SPEAKER_1: With or without global warming.
SPEAKER_4: Yeah, with or without, exactly.
SPEAKER_4: And so if we know that we have to ultimately get off oil no matter what, we know that that is an inescapable outcome.
SPEAKER_4: It's simply a question of when, not if.
SPEAKER_4: Then why would you run this crazy experiment of changing the chemical composition of the atmosphere and oceans by adding enormous amounts of CO2 that have been buried since the pre Cambrian era?
SPEAKER_4: That's crazy.
SPEAKER_4: That is the dumbest experiment in history by far.
SPEAKER_4: Can you think of a dumber experiment?
SPEAKER_4: I honestly cannot.
SPEAKER_4: What good could possibly come of it?
SPEAKER_1: So therefore, we need another solution here.
SPEAKER_1: But of course, electric cars still uses coal.
SPEAKER_4: That's why you need sustainable power production, like solar and wind.
SPEAKER_1: Which can still charge your car.
SPEAKER_4: Yes.
SPEAKER_1: Bill.
SPEAKER_3: Neil.
SPEAKER_1: Do you still have your house in California?
SPEAKER_3: Yes.
SPEAKER_1: In Studio City?
SPEAKER_3: Yes.
SPEAKER_1: I've been there.
SPEAKER_3: Yes.
SPEAKER_1: But you're like a native, you're a New Yorker now, not native, but you live in New York.
SPEAKER_1: Somebody else is living in your house.
SPEAKER_1: That's a crazy house that you live in.
SPEAKER_3: It's cool.
SPEAKER_1: It's completely alive with self-generated electricity.
SPEAKER_3: Well, it's got four kilowatts of solar.
SPEAKER_2: That's great.
SPEAKER_3: Which is more than enough for 10 months of the year, maybe 10 and a half months of the year.
SPEAKER_3: And I would have more, but my neighbor's house shadows my panels.
SPEAKER_2: Oh, I thought you were going to say your neighbor is stealing your electricity.
SPEAKER_3: Well, she's stealing sunlight.
SPEAKER_1: Yeah, that's the same thing.
SPEAKER_1: That is the same thing.
SPEAKER_3: She travels a lot.
SPEAKER_3: And I thought maybe while she was out of town, I could just cut off this one part of the second story.
SPEAKER_3: Easier to ask forgiveness and permission.
SPEAKER_1: Okay, Bill, but-
SPEAKER_3: Oh yeah, sorry.
SPEAKER_1: There's tons of oil still in reserve that is yet to be drilled or is-
SPEAKER_3: Here's the bad news.
SPEAKER_1: Okay, but-
SPEAKER_3: Will never run out of fossil fuels.
SPEAKER_2: Oh.
SPEAKER_3: That is the bad news.
SPEAKER_2: That's terrible.
SPEAKER_1: That's terrible.
SPEAKER_3: It really is because burning it and burning it is just the worst thing for all of us in the medium term.
SPEAKER_1: What's your plan?
SPEAKER_3: So the plan is to-
SPEAKER_1: Because as long as oil is cheap and it's cheaper than my solar panels, how do you expect people to-
SPEAKER_1: Yeah, if you're rich, you can buy the car that saves gas.
SPEAKER_3: So bear in mind, the reason-
SPEAKER_1: That cost you more than the car that doesn't save gas.
SPEAKER_3: Well, but the reason-
SPEAKER_2: The Sex on Wheels.
SPEAKER_1: The Sex on Wheels car.
SPEAKER_3: The reason you want a Sex on Wheels electric car is because-
SPEAKER_1: Costing how much?
SPEAKER_3: About 100,000.
SPEAKER_1: 100,000, yeah.
SPEAKER_1: Everybody's got 100,000.
SPEAKER_3: Well, deep breath.
SPEAKER_2: Let me get to my mattress.
SPEAKER_3: Deep breath.
SPEAKER_3: It's 95% efficient or 93% efficient, whereas a gas-powered car constrained by the second love, thermodynamics, is at best 28%, 30%.
SPEAKER_3: So you're squandering energy, you just can't get back when you try to get it out of heat at low temperature differences.
SPEAKER_3: So with that said, it's been estimated that we could save about 30% of the energy we use through conservation.
SPEAKER_3: We can have electric cars, we can improve transportation systems, to be sure.
SPEAKER_3: But the big thing, you guys, as we say about climate change, if you are opposed to government regulation now, you don't like governments now, just wait till stuff gets bad.
SPEAKER_3: Just wait till Floridians have to abandon their homes, and Miami's half underwater, and then there's gonna be regulation.
SPEAKER_3: And I'll give you an example of this.
SPEAKER_3: World War II.
SPEAKER_3: Regulation happened like crazy, and everybody was very proud of it.
SPEAKER_3: Wanna create the next great generation.
SPEAKER_1: So, what I neglected to mention here, and I think you should have mentioned too, was if you can start out with $100,000 carb, because it's a test of concept, people like it, wealthy can buy it, but the real test is, can you make an electric car that's competitive in price to...
SPEAKER_3: Absolutely.
SPEAKER_1: And I'm told there's a Tesla Model 3 expected to come out, and that's priced at $35,000.
SPEAKER_3: Yeah, so I drove a Nissan Leaf for three years.
SPEAKER_1: Yeah, yeah, okay.
SPEAKER_3: It's about that same price.
SPEAKER_1: About that same price, so there you have it.
SPEAKER_3: I mean, I did other stuff, I went to sleep, I had meals, I didn't just drive for three years.
SPEAKER_1: But Bill, what I really want is the flying car.
SPEAKER_3: The flying car's a real tough problem.
SPEAKER_1: It is, but I think Elon cured me of my urges to find a flying car.
SPEAKER_1: Oh.
SPEAKER_3: Well, just wait till everybody's in traffic flying cars.
SPEAKER_1: No, no.
SPEAKER_1: He told me what the deal is with flying cars.
SPEAKER_3: Wing loading?
SPEAKER_1: Let's find out.
SPEAKER_1: Of course, what we all really want are flying cars.
SPEAKER_1: Yeah.
SPEAKER_4: Actually, let me ask you, so are you sure you want a flying car?
SPEAKER_1: No, but it looks cool.
SPEAKER_4: It does look cool.
SPEAKER_4: I mean, whenever you see cities and some futuristic concept, there was sort of a flying car in there.
SPEAKER_1: You can't tell me you never thought of it.
SPEAKER_4: No, I thought a lot about it.
SPEAKER_1: Yeah, yeah, okay.
SPEAKER_4: And there's some people I know that are working on flying cars or flying personal transport devices, if you will.
SPEAKER_1: Hoverboards.
SPEAKER_4: There are people who work on hoverboards.
SPEAKER_4: But I mean, I sort of wonder-
SPEAKER_1: After the interview, you can show me your hoverboard room, okay?
SPEAKER_4: I know someone who works on a hoverboard.
SPEAKER_1: I won't tell anybody.
SPEAKER_1: The microphone is on mute now, so you can tell me.
SPEAKER_4: Just between us, it's awesome.
SPEAKER_4: I'm debating like, should there be flying cars or shouldn't there be flying cars?
SPEAKER_4: I'm of two minds on that.
SPEAKER_4: Because if there are flying cars, then well, obviously, you have added this additional dimension where now a car could potentially fall in your head and will be susceptible to weather.
SPEAKER_4: And of course, you'd have to have a flying car where it would be like an autopilot, because I mean, otherwise, forget it.
SPEAKER_4: You don't want people navigating, flying.
SPEAKER_4: But even in an autopilot scenario, and even if you've got redundant motors and blades, you've still gone from near zero chance of something falling on your head to something greater than that.
SPEAKER_4: And there's also a noise challenge.
SPEAKER_1: We don't know how to fly quietly.
SPEAKER_4: Right.
SPEAKER_1: Okay, so I'll wait it out some more.
SPEAKER_4: Something that I do think would definitely help a lot in cities is more tunnels.
SPEAKER_4: Essentially, with flying car, you're talking about going 3D.
SPEAKER_4: And there's a fundamental flaw with cities where you've got dense office buildings and apartment buildings and duplexes, and they're operating on three dimensions, but then you go to the street and suddenly you're two dimensional.
SPEAKER_1: Because it's a surface.
SPEAKER_4: Yeah.
SPEAKER_1: This is how New York City solved this with the subway, going underneath multiple layers of subway.
SPEAKER_4: Right.
SPEAKER_1: So we are actually traveling in three dimensions, but below the ground rather than in the air.
SPEAKER_4: But I think if you were to extrapolate that to cars and have more car tunnels, then you would alleviate congestion completely.
SPEAKER_1: And you wouldn't need the flying car.
SPEAKER_4: You would not need a flying car in that case.
SPEAKER_4: And it would always work even if the weather's bad.
SPEAKER_1: And it would never ice up.
SPEAKER_4: It would never ice up and it would not fall on your head.
SPEAKER_1: So we're gonna get started on that right away.
SPEAKER_2: I think those sound like the words of a man who owns a car company.
SPEAKER_2: That's all I'm saying.
SPEAKER_1: A non-flying car company.
SPEAKER_2: If I had a company that made non-flying cars, I probably wouldn't want to have a flying car.
SPEAKER_1: You would say build more roads.
SPEAKER_2: Exactly, build more roads and tunnels.
SPEAKER_1: You don't want a car falling on your head.
SPEAKER_1: Plus, a point that came out in my conversation with you, but it didn't make the clip, was we have flying cars today.
SPEAKER_1: They're called helicopters.
SPEAKER_3: Yeah.
SPEAKER_1: And they're really noisy.
SPEAKER_1: And in fact, if you want something as heavy as a car to levitate, it's gonna be making some noise.
SPEAKER_3: Well, it's also gonna use a lot of energy.
SPEAKER_1: And a lot of energy.
SPEAKER_2: Well, that's because in the word of another physicist I know who flies his own plane, he said helicopters don't fly as much as they beat the air into submission.
SPEAKER_1: Who said this?
SPEAKER_1: It's true.
SPEAKER_1: It's all, it's completely there.
SPEAKER_3: The air doesn't submit.
SPEAKER_3: It just flows down and having enough momentum to hold the helicopter up.
SPEAKER_3: And he also, Elon Musk brings up another good point.
SPEAKER_1: What?
SPEAKER_3: When we have humans operating the Tisonic flying car, which competes with Chuck Nice's subterranean vehicle, P, who's gonna drive the thing without all kinds of trouble?
SPEAKER_3: And so, you know, it always fascinates me when you look at highways from the air when you're in an airplane or a helicopter, it looks so orderly.
SPEAKER_2: Yes.
SPEAKER_3: It really does.
SPEAKER_3: Cars all emerge, they go along, it's very cool, but you're using a human brain.
SPEAKER_3: This thing is capable of art and radio shows and rocket companies.
SPEAKER_3: You're using this brain to do nothing but operate this car on this right of way.
SPEAKER_2: Stay in a straight line, stay in a straight line, stay in a straight line, stay in a straight line.
SPEAKER_3: If you change lanes, look over your shoulder, we'll go, head check, head check, head check, whoa, whoa, head check.
SPEAKER_3: And so, this is why this seems like a real opportunity.
SPEAKER_1: One of my favorite punk music is ever, Caution, Driver Applying Makeup.
SPEAKER_1: That's my favorite.
SPEAKER_3: I've seen it.
SPEAKER_2: I've seen it.
SPEAKER_3: That's a lot of info, Chuck.
SPEAKER_3: Okay, so you don't want information, Chuck.
SPEAKER_1: You don't want humans driving cars.
SPEAKER_1: You want driverless cars.
SPEAKER_3: Yeah, at a very high level of reliability.
SPEAKER_3: Now, you know, I used to work at Boeing, and you get a triple.
SPEAKER_1: You worked on the 747.
SPEAKER_3: 747, a little bit 727-3757, but what you want is.
SPEAKER_1: That's the lingo, Chuck.
SPEAKER_2: I know.
SPEAKER_3: Oh, that's how you.
SPEAKER_1: He's showing that off now.
SPEAKER_2: Sound like you're gonna give him your number.
SPEAKER_3: These are all planes.
SPEAKER_1: Everyone from Boeing has a 7-something-7 in it.
SPEAKER_3: Well, yeah, but the interesting point of interest, the 727, the 737, 757 have the same tube.
SPEAKER_3: The 717, which was the 707KC135, have the same tube.
SPEAKER_3: And so, where was I going?
SPEAKER_3: When it's triple redundant, autopilot, you can count on it.
SPEAKER_3: It's gonna land the plane.
SPEAKER_3: But the problem with cars is not, you don't have nearly the traffic control that you have in an airplane.
SPEAKER_1: So who do you think is gonna win this?
SPEAKER_1: Tesla and with a driverless car perhaps coming out of their shop or Google?
SPEAKER_3: Well, Tesla makes cars.
SPEAKER_3: Google makes software.
SPEAKER_3: You can't have one without the other to be driverless.
SPEAKER_1: So this is like a chocolate and peanut butter thing.
SPEAKER_2: Exactly.
SPEAKER_3: Whoa.
SPEAKER_2: You got your car in my software.
SPEAKER_2: You got your software in my car.
SPEAKER_3: But wait, you're both right.
SPEAKER_1: Chuck, I love setting you up.
SPEAKER_3: But wait, there's more.
SPEAKER_3: When you think about the automotive industry writ large, everybody uses the same parts.
SPEAKER_3: With the gas gauge sensor, the speedometer, the tires, the nuts, all the bolts, all the same standard.
SPEAKER_3: There's a little competition, but you can get a lot of commonality.
SPEAKER_3: And so we will see what happens in the near future.
SPEAKER_1: When we come back, we're going to find out what Elon Musk is really worried about.
SPEAKER_1: You know, should I give you a hint?
SPEAKER_2: Go ahead.
SPEAKER_1: No, I'm not.
SPEAKER_1: When we come back, find out what keeps Elon Musk awake at night on StarTalk.
SPEAKER_1: We're back to StarTalk Radio.
SPEAKER_1: I'm Neil deGrasse Tyson, co-host Chuck Nice, in the house.
SPEAKER_2: Hey, hey.
SPEAKER_1: In the house, and then I got Bill Nye in the house.
SPEAKER_3: I am co-housing.
SPEAKER_1: Co-housing, donning a bow tie, as usual.
SPEAKER_1: In the earlier segment, we were sure that it is surgically attached.
SPEAKER_3: Polymetal.
SPEAKER_1: Polymetal surgically attached to him.
SPEAKER_1: We're featuring my interview with Elon Musk.
SPEAKER_1: And just before the break, I teased you to tell you that we would be saving for this final segment what he fears the most.
SPEAKER_3: Fears.
SPEAKER_1: Now, if you're, he's a confident guy.
SPEAKER_1: He's a confident guy.
SPEAKER_1: And to quote Bill, if you've been scoring along with us, you may remember in our first segment, we listed the things he wanted to introduce to change humanity.
SPEAKER_1: Right.
SPEAKER_1: One thing he does not want to touch.
SPEAKER_1: Let's check it out.
SPEAKER_4: I mean, I'm quite worried about artificial super intelligence these days.
SPEAKER_4: I think, and I've said this publicly, I think it's maybe something more dangerous than nuclear weapons.
SPEAKER_4: So, we should be really careful about that.
SPEAKER_4: If there was a very deep super digital super intelligence that was created that could go into rapid recursive self improvement in a non-logarithmic way, then, you know, that wasn't-
SPEAKER_1: And it's self-learning.
SPEAKER_4: Yes.
SPEAKER_4: So like it just could reprogram itself to be smarter and iterate very quickly and do that 24 hours a day on millions of computers.
SPEAKER_4: Well, I mean-
SPEAKER_1: Then that's all she wrote.
SPEAKER_1: That's it.
SPEAKER_4: That's all she wrote.
SPEAKER_4: I mean, we will be like a Pat Labrador if we're lucky.
SPEAKER_1: A pet labrador.
SPEAKER_4: I have a pet labrador, by the way.
SPEAKER_1: We'll be their pets.
SPEAKER_4: It's like the friendliest creature.
SPEAKER_1: No, they'll domesticate us so that we will be lap pets to them.
SPEAKER_4: Yes.
SPEAKER_4: I mean, or something strange is gonna happen.
SPEAKER_1: They'll keep the docile humans and get rid of the violent ones and then read the docile humans.
SPEAKER_4: Yeah, I mean, the utility function of the digital superintelligence is of stupendous importance.
SPEAKER_4: What does it try to optimize?
SPEAKER_4: And we need to be really careful with saying, oh, how about human happiness?
SPEAKER_4: Because it may conclude that all unhappy humans should be terminated and that we should all be just be captured and with dopamine and serotonin directly injected into our brains to maximize happiness because it's concluded that dopamine and serotonin are what cause happiness.
SPEAKER_1: Therefore.
SPEAKER_4: Therefore maximize them.
SPEAKER_4: I'm just saying we should exercise caution.
SPEAKER_1: What do you think of that?
SPEAKER_1: So just to be clear, he's not talking about artificial intelligence.
SPEAKER_1: He's talking about artificial super intelligence, the kind that can self-learn.
SPEAKER_3: Okay, so 20% of the world's population of people does not have electricity.
SPEAKER_3: They've never made a phone call, not a cell phone call.
SPEAKER_3: They've never made a phone call.
SPEAKER_3: So when the super intelligence takes over Chicago or whatever, what are people in East Africa gonna give a rip about?
SPEAKER_3: Okay, so you guys have managed to kill yourselves.
SPEAKER_3: Way to go.
SPEAKER_3: We're looking for some corn here, so I get it.
SPEAKER_3: But I think people have to keep in mind, we all take computers are so reliable and they're so much part of our everyday life now.
SPEAKER_3: We take them for granted, but somebody is literally or in a sense shoveling the coal.
SPEAKER_3: What happens if you unplug the super computer intelligence thing?
SPEAKER_1: It will find a new source of energy.
SPEAKER_2: No, no, no, no, no.
SPEAKER_3: Because it has its own nuclear reactor.
SPEAKER_1: The failure of that logic is the assumption that it would let you unplug it.
SPEAKER_2: Right.
SPEAKER_3: Okay, but how did it create that thing to keep it from?
SPEAKER_1: I'm just saying, I don't, you know, I'm with you here.
SPEAKER_3: It seems like a solvable problem.
SPEAKER_1: So I'm looking here, we have three levels of intelligence.
SPEAKER_1: Artificial narrow intelligence, so it's computer doing one thing better than anything, it's not getting anybody's way.
SPEAKER_2: A calculator.
SPEAKER_1: Calculator.
SPEAKER_1: Let it do it.
SPEAKER_3: You plug one, it wins at Jeopardy.
SPEAKER_1: No, no, that'd be artificial general intelligence, which would be general intelligence, but it's not hell-bent on taking over the world.
SPEAKER_2: It's that IBM computer, right?
SPEAKER_1: Yeah, yeah, it goes across, yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_1: Which one was that?
SPEAKER_1: Watson.
SPEAKER_2: Watson.
SPEAKER_2: It's Watson.
SPEAKER_1: Watson, so it's the super intelligence that scares him.
SPEAKER_1: And again, I kinda agree with you, Bill.
SPEAKER_1: At some point, you just unplug the dude.
SPEAKER_3: Well, I just think about the Colossus project, the Forbin, the Colossus project.
SPEAKER_1: Mm-hmm, mm-hmm.
SPEAKER_3: And so this is where the two superpowers on Earth have nuclear arsenals that you control by computer, so they connect the two computers.
SPEAKER_3: And you know, trouble ensues, okay?
SPEAKER_3: And so you try to unplug it, but they have their own nuclear reactors that run them.
SPEAKER_1: This is the movie War Games, like all over again.
SPEAKER_3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, well it was before War Games.
SPEAKER_3: It was a novel, and so, and then a movie.
SPEAKER_3: But the deal is that running a nuclear power plant is not straightforward.
SPEAKER_3: It takes somebody shoveling the coal, or rate, moving the stuff around in the waste.
SPEAKER_1: In the pile.
SPEAKER_3: Ponds, yeah.
SPEAKER_1: So there's also much ado about the singularity.
SPEAKER_1: Ray Kurzweil, you know, I gotta get him on StarTalk because I'm just not with him on this, but I don't want to bad mouth him unless he's sitting in front of me.
SPEAKER_3: This is everybody, when I do a college talk.
SPEAKER_1: So he can bad mouth me back.
SPEAKER_3: Has this happened to you, Neil?
SPEAKER_3: So when I do a college talk, somebody asked me about the Singularity.
SPEAKER_1: I know, and people all freak out.
SPEAKER_3: When a computer is as smart as a human.
SPEAKER_1: Right, this would be.
SPEAKER_3: And it's always plugged in and has no arms or legs.
SPEAKER_1: Right.
SPEAKER_3: And does something.
SPEAKER_1: Right, right, somehow, what is it gonna do?
SPEAKER_1: Is it gonna chase you down the street?
SPEAKER_1: Like, what's it gonna do?
SPEAKER_2: Well, no, it's going to actually get the machines to do its bidding for it.
SPEAKER_1: Yes, it'll control your thermostat.
SPEAKER_2: Like in Terminator.
SPEAKER_2: Right, that would.
SPEAKER_3: It'll control your thermostat and your self-driving car.
SPEAKER_1: I'm cool with that, but this notion that somehow the world is fundamentally different before and after the singularity.
SPEAKER_3: But from a historical standpoint, I could buy it.
SPEAKER_1: No, we'll be different, but we're not going to be, it's not going to be running out of the, screaming out of the apartment.
SPEAKER_1: No, when machines took over our physical labor, did we say, oh my gosh, this is the crazy day?
SPEAKER_1: No, no, it happened slowly and we're fine.
SPEAKER_1: Now we got people repairing machines.
SPEAKER_3: And there's still artisans carving the thing.
SPEAKER_1: We got to get them on the show.
SPEAKER_1: I want to get them on the show and then we'll give them a piece of our mind.
SPEAKER_1: But we can't leave people freaked out over the fate of the machines that we create and their capacity to turn us into domesticated pets.
SPEAKER_1: Let's find out if Elon has any positive thoughts about the future at all.
SPEAKER_2: Thank God.
SPEAKER_4: I'm quite optimistic about the future.
SPEAKER_4: I mean, I don't think we're about to enter a dark age.
SPEAKER_4: It could happen, but it's not, I think, not likely any time soon.
SPEAKER_1: Not before you get to Mars.
SPEAKER_4: Hopefully not before we get to Mars.
SPEAKER_4: But bear in mind that that...
SPEAKER_1: And part of the act of trying to get to Mars is a force to keep us out of the dark ages.
SPEAKER_4: I mean, there's always a chance that something calamitous could happen to Earth, either a natural man-made catastrophe.
SPEAKER_4: Certainly, we see that in the fossil record.
SPEAKER_4: And we've invented all sorts of ways of doing ourselves in that the dinosaurs didn't have.
SPEAKER_4: And we haven't managed to solve the asteroid problem.
SPEAKER_4: So, therefore, our risk is higher, okay?
SPEAKER_4: I'm sure people realize this.
SPEAKER_4: If you haven't solved the problems that have caused the prior extinctions and you've added new ones, you've not improved the situation.
SPEAKER_4: And that's sort of where we are right now.
SPEAKER_4: And, you know, there are some really smart people that are a lot more pessimistic than I am, like, you know, the Stephen Hawking of the world and Martin Reiss, the Royal Astronomy.
SPEAKER_4: They're all quite pessimistic.
SPEAKER_4: I'm a naturally optimistic person, but I do think that there's value in establishing life insurance, which, if life as we know it is on more than one planet, then the light of consciousness as we know it is likely preserved into the future for much longer.
SPEAKER_1: If consciousness is preserved.
SPEAKER_1: No, it's a beautiful talk.
SPEAKER_2: That was his optimism?
SPEAKER_1: What, what, Jack?
SPEAKER_2: That was optimistic?
SPEAKER_2: Oh, you know, the thing that took out the dinosaurs, that's still a thing.
SPEAKER_2: It is still a thing.
SPEAKER_2: And by the way, we'll probably take ourselves out before that, but.
SPEAKER_1: And that's still a thing, too.
SPEAKER_2: Yeah, but you know what, I'm pretty optimistic.
SPEAKER_2: No, no.
SPEAKER_3: At the end, it's what you guys, back in the day, there were no humans when the ancient dinosaurs were taken out.
SPEAKER_1: Yeah.
SPEAKER_3: There's no evidence that the ancient dinosaurs had a space program.
SPEAKER_1: At all.
SPEAKER_1: They didn't even have opposable thumbs, much less.
SPEAKER_3: It doesn't seem like they did.
SPEAKER_3: And so, we have that leg up.
SPEAKER_3: Also, they're going on nine billion people.
SPEAKER_3: If you kill almost everybody through extraordinary means, somebody's gonna leak through.
SPEAKER_3: Much more easy to leak through here on Earth than on Mars.
SPEAKER_1: Here's what I'm saying.
SPEAKER_1: You wanna become a multi-planet species.
SPEAKER_1: Whatever effort that takes.
SPEAKER_1: I've said this before.
SPEAKER_1: It seems that it would be less effort to deflect the asteroid than to terraform Mars and ship a billion people there.
SPEAKER_3: Yeah.
SPEAKER_2: I'm with you on that.
SPEAKER_1: Deflect the damn asteroid.
SPEAKER_1: Get on with life.
SPEAKER_1: If you have the power to terraform Mars, you have the power to fix Earth.
SPEAKER_3: Yeah, and Martian atmosphere is getting scraped off all the time.
SPEAKER_2: That's what I'm saying.
SPEAKER_1: What fears you the most?
SPEAKER_1: We gotta wrap it up.
SPEAKER_1: What fears you the most?
SPEAKER_2: The dark, the dark.
SPEAKER_2: Sorry, I go with the simple stuff.
SPEAKER_2: It's the truth.
SPEAKER_1: The monster under your bed.
SPEAKER_1: All right, Bill, what fears you the most?
SPEAKER_3: Climate change, then asteroids.
SPEAKER_1: You know what I fear the most?
SPEAKER_1: That we lack the wisdom to understand our own fate, so that we then become victims of it, rather than conquerors.
SPEAKER_3: This sounds like those who do not know the past are condemned to repeat it.
SPEAKER_1: It's a version of that, I think.
SPEAKER_1: We gotta call it quits there.
SPEAKER_1: Bill Nye, thanks for being on the show.
SPEAKER_1: Chuck Nice, as always.
SPEAKER_2: Always a pleasure.
SPEAKER_1: My co-host, you've been listening to StarTalk Radio, and I've been your host, Neil deGrasse Tyson, your personal astrophysicist.
SPEAKER_1: And as always, I bid you good to keep looking up.